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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|